Pick More NBA Winners Today with These Simple Tips

If you could consistently pick winners in the NBA, would you do it?

Of course you would.

What if I told you that I’ve found some ways to help me pick winners more consistently?

I’m not going to lie and say that I make thousands of dollars with this method. But I will say that I win more often (and spend less time “researching”) after discovering these tips.

The trouble with sports betting over the course of a season is that the cost of wagers really throws off your profits. Breaking even usually means being right 52.4% of the time, depending on how much it costs you to bet. Not only is it hard to pick a winner, you actually have to do it well more than half the time to make any money with this hobby.

Though no magic bullets exist to guarantee consistent winnings, I’ve found that I win a little more (and enjoy myself a lot more) after applying the lessons below.

Look for Statistical and Size Balance and Bank on It

Over the past twenty years, the best pro basketball teams are the ones with the most balanced rosters, and by balanced I mean statistically- and size-wise. Statistical balance insures against streaking. Finding a balance between big and small (slow and fast) players also protects against streaking, thanks to its built-in injury-protection power.

Yes, a big team is probably going to defend well – but historically-speaking the league’s largest teams have very little success.

Look at the 2013-2014 season, for example – in that year, the team that was both the tallest and the heaviest also had the league’s worst overall record. That team was the Philadelphia 76ers, and they learned the hard way that size does not mean wins. If Philadelphia had some small, light, quick shooters to balance out their wealth of bruisers, they could easily have been in the wild card chase.

Over the long-term, balanced teams will perform better against the spread than teams with too many players in one size or skill set. Use this knowledge to your advantage.

Concentrate Your Bets on the Early Season

Context is the most powerful force in sports betting.

In the NBA, the first twenty games are by far the best time for a smart bettor to make a ton of cash.

I feel like the first twenty games are almost an advantage gambling proposition for me, thanks to my years of experience watching and betting on the game.

During this part of the year, sharp bettors have an edge against most bet shops, bookmakers, online sportsbooks, and mobile sports betting apps.

Here are some reasons why:

Oddsmakers don’t know the teams very well.

In basketball, little changes to staff (even front office staff) can have a big enough impact on performance to give you an advantage. The impact of staff and coaching changes isn’t known well in the first twenty games so oddsmakers are more likely to be wrong.

Sportsbooks are distracted by other major events.

Early in the NBA season, some big sports are just entering their end-game, which is the most popular time to bet on any spot. Professional and college football represent a huge chunk of the US sports betting market, and they overlap with the beginning of the NBA season. It isn’t just Western oddsmakers who are distracted – premier league football and amateur soccer are heating up in Europe and Asia around the beginning of the NBA season, too. Books are busy handicapping their money-making sports and are more likely to write bad lines.

Rosters change more often early in the season.

The first twenty games of the NBA season will see more roster shakeups than any other part, mostly because teams are still gelling after the preseason. Once again, this means that books are less likely to write a sharp line. This is particularly true for teams that have had even minor roster changes in the past month or so.

Use All the Tools Available

With loads of Web-based tools, mobile apps, and other sources of info for sports bettors, it’s a great time to be alive and betting.

Professional handicapping services connect bettors to people who make their living making sports picks. For the price of a rental car you can get access to a long list of picks for a variety of sports. These services are available via text, email, even social media and other chat systems. Of course, not all services cost money. I love the tips at Picks.org, for instance, and they’re totally free.

Bookmaker apps and websites compete for customers in part by developing their own analysis tools or forums for tips and making them available to their base exclusively. These are basically just tip sheets, though some services provide audio analysis in a radio format. Since these services are free with membership, choosing not to use them is a waste of money. At worst, it’s another perspective to consider. Bovada’s strategy article collection is a surprisingly good example of this kind of help that has the added benefit of being available to the general public.

Good old-fashioned research is free and, if you know what you’re doing, extremely accurate. I’d much rather do my own work to find the answers I need than trust some guy I’m paying for my tips. It’s a personal preference, and maybe you don’t share it. Just the other day, I was hunting for some new tips and I found this page from OnlineGamblingSites.org that answered my exact question. I didn’t have to pay a dime.

Betting successfully on the NBA means striking a balance over the long-term and short-term, and I understand that. But I still say building your bankroll by taking advantage of early-season weakness is the best way to go, especially during the ups and downs of the playoffs later on, when you’ll want a nice stockpile of betting cash. You can build your bankroll even further by applying the other basic principles found above.